Advanced weapons systems training
Realistic warship training is the cornerstone of conventional deterrence.
The Iran-backed Houthi forces have been disrupting maritime traffic in the Red Sea for almost 12 months now.
They have used anti-ships, short-range ballistic missiles and surface drones with some success.
It was a successful combat use for those who invested hard cash in maintaining expensive industries and experienced crews, but acted as a very uncomfortable wake-up call for blue water navies who let their guard down during the past 30 years.
Fleet Air defense systems deployed today were designed in the 80’s-90’s to defeat the best of what the Soviet Union had to offer: high-flying or sea-skimmer supersonic missiles carrying up to 750 kg of conventional or nuclear warheads.
The US Aegis and the European PAAMS systems have proven to be highly effective against such threats.
US Navy ships, UK type 45, Italo-French Horizon and FREMM class have reliably intercepted relatively inexpensive but still dangerous high-supersonic short-range ballistic missiles.
So the new technology seems to work as expected, but regular realistic drills are mandatory to maintain crew proficiency and to iron out equipment bugs.
The Royal Navy discovered during a sea trial a manufacturing defect in her batch of Sea Viper missiles, something you don’t want to discover when you are under attack.
Even the mighty US Navy has had multiple mishaps due to substandard training levels over the last decade.
The German Navy and Danish Navies scaled back their spending so much that their crews had few occasions to use their ship's air defense systems. While under attack in the Red Sea, the Danish frigate could not fire any missiles and even had multiple ammo misfires on the 76mm main gun.
The German Navy failed to intercept a drone with its long-range SAM system due to a fire control malfunction. This turned out to be a good thing as it was a US drone this time.
In 2018, The French Navy experienced a similar situation when 2 FREMM could not fire their recently delivered cruise missile during their first operational use. A third frigate, used as a spare, eventually fired the salvo.
System malfunction or human errors? Details have never been published on this incident, but as a consequence, the French Navy reintroduced regular life-firing exercises with complex (and expensive) weapons for all its units and it paid off!
Aster 15/30 in action against ASBM
Over the past 12 months, French Navy Horizon Destroyers and FREMM frigates have regularly made the news, blasting all sorts of floating and flying threats with all their onboard weapons; Aster, Compact 76 mm, 20mm guns.
The most spectacular was without doubt the destruction of 3 short-range ballistic missiles in a single engagement.
Conventional deterrence
Nato forces need to ramp up their preparation to regain and maintain credible deterrence.
In 1982, Argentina invaded the Falklands because the Royal Navy, weakened by budget cuts, lowered her guard in the South Atlantic.
In 2022, Putin rightly saw NATO as being weakened by decades of budget cuts. His “special military operation” would have succeeded in a matter of days, if it was not for the Russian armed forces' lack of preparation.
In both situations, war would never have happened if a credible deterrence force had been maintained.
So, are we ready for what is to come?
Following the Ukraine conflict, NATO is ramping up, and will regain its capacity to keep the Russian bear at bay in Central Europe. But the next hot spot is likely to be in the China Sea, against an adversary whose technological and industrial capabilities are light years ahead of Russia or the Iran-backed Houthis and in some respects almost on par with the US.
For years, China has implemented its “Salami tactic” to assert its dominance on many reefs by deploying dozens of ships each time.
The number of assets available to China seems formidable, but they have key operational deficiencies.
- Outdated command and control organisation, lacking flexibility
- Logistic fleet insufficient for long-range deployment
- Recruitment problems
- Lack of joint service operational experience
- No experience of high-intensity naval combat
According to US military analysts, the Chinese Fleet is still a fleet in being, without any recent inter-service combat experience.
Looking only at the hardware, the risk is to only see half the picture and risk making the PLA out to be 10 feet tall.
NATO maritime command and its allies in the Pacific regroup Navies with 2 World Wars and several centuries of experience in naval operations. It is today our main edge over any potential foes.
The Chief of Staff of the French Navy, in a speech to a new generation of graduating officers, stated that they belonged to a generation that would most probably experience high-intensity naval warfare.
With this in mind, crew training with complex ammunition, research budgets and stocks need to be stepped up to maintain our technological and operational experience edge, which is real but slowly eroding.
Yes, it is expensive, but the cost of failure will be paid in lives. Our leaders should never forget that.
China does not necessarily seek direct confrontation, but the West needs to maintain a well-trained fleet, dissuasive enough to counter China’s aggressive behaviour and prevent any escalation.
Train as you fight, fight as you train!
US Army General George Patton
French Navy Charles de Gaulle and Royal Navy Queen Elisabeth aircraft carriers
