The Chinese blockade of Taiwan
The long preparation
Only 12 countries still recognise Taipei as the capital of Taiwan, thanks to decades of Chinese political and economic influence. The aggravating moment was the US decision to switch its diplomatic recognition in 1979 towards Beijing.
Since then, the US has walked a thin line between its business interests with China while being Taiwan's strongest military supporter.
The Chinese fleet and air force have been protecting, for the past 15 years, the development of an overlapping network of militarised reefs within the South China Sea, without real challenges from local countries. These “grey activities” have been identified as significant threats by several countries close to the USA.
The USA, Japan and the Philippines recently signed defence agreements to enforce freedom of navigation and counter Chinese “cabbage tactics”.
China has been using similar tactics in Japanese waters. Several incidents around the Senkaku Islands forced Japan to reactivate its marine amphibious force and, more recently, to commission 2 Light Aircraft carriers, Japan's first naval power projection capabilities since WW2, a significant switch to their post-war defensive-only stance. Thanks to Japan's very capable Navy, the JMSDF, none of the Chinese incursions were successful.
As regards to Taiwan, the Chinese PLA organises regular fleet and air force exercises around the Island (12 in 2 years!). The most striking example was during Nancy Pelosi's visit in April 2023 when a 4-day show of force of naval, air force and rocket force missile firing exercises took place in 6 zones around Taiwan.
The message could not have been clearer towards the USA. “Get out of my lawn!”
Taiwan sits in the "first island chain", which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to Washington's foreign policy in the region. BBC
The most effective strategy
According to Xi Jinping's publicly available long-term plan, the Chinese military has until 2027 to get ready for a possible invasion.
However, a full-scale invasion is hard to believe, as it would trigger a regional confrontation that would be extremely costly for all the parties involved, negating any potential benefits.
A more likely scenario studied in a recent publication might produce the desired effect at a much lower political, economic and military cost and is more in line with the Chinese philosophy: A non-kinetic blockade.
China for the past 30 years has demonstrated its ability to make maritime gains by staying below a certain threshold of violence (Salami tactics), making their actions acceptable or less unacceptable to the international community. A blockage of Taiwan would be a continuation of this tactic but on a much bigger scale.
The People's Liberation Army, due to its proximity to the Island, can deploy enough naval and air assets in a few days to enforce a total blockage around the Island.
It would consist of multiple layers of complementary assets:
Coast Guard
Militarised fishing trawlers
Warships, to be used as a last resort.
This setup would allow a scalable but also potentially reversible level of response.
The second step would be a communication blockade. The Chinese Forces have the technology to deploy naval underwater and space-based units to cut off, or at least seriously disrupt economic and military communications, relying heavily on underwater cables and satellites.
An extract from The Atlantic strategic paper describes in detail the actions China would take to demonstrate overwhelming force towards the international community:
A non-kinetic blockade by the PRC would likely include:
Strategic messaging to warn countries against interfering in an “internal dispute”;
Clearly visible maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and military aircraft presence;
People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) swarming and ramming merchant shipping;
Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) harassing and attempting “law-enforcement” interdictions;
PLAN ships acting as barriers to transit and clearly visible live-fire exercises;
Offensive cyberattacks on government organizations and financial institutions;
Severing or holding at risk undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the world;
Missile exercises from mainland China that land in the waters surrounding Taiwan;
Clearly visible deployment of sea mines; and
Limited covert and deniable submarine attacks on merchant shipping.
Taiwan Harbours welcome 92 ships per day and the country's extreme energetic dependence on importation (98%) makes it especially vulnerable to a blockade.
The economic and social pain inflicted could rapidly push Taipei towards a negotiated settlement with China.
An immediate or disproportionate use of force by Taiwan and the US, to a diplomatically well-crafted blockade might backfire, as it could be seen as excessive and unjustified (remember Irak). In other words, it's a perfect trap allied forces need not fall for.
If China achieves international neutrality or indifference, Taipei is potentially doomed. China's influence and narrative towards the UN will be key to winning the day. The last 20 years of Chinese political influence in African and South American countries will help. A perfect plan would include good reasons for Western governments not to act.
The Crimea / Dombas' initial invasion in 2012 and the West's lack of reaction to it, have been studied closely by China: fake news, election tampering, and false-flag terrorist operations. The list of possible manipulation scenarios is long.
The combination of Taiwan's international isolation, its population sentiments toward China, and the level of USA support will be key factors to consider before any such operation is launched.
A new Cold War
We are, again, looking at a face-off with global implications, between 2 political systems. One democratic but with mostly short-term visions, with another, an authoritarian one-party state, able to plan its strategic goals over several decades.
35 years ago, the democratic side won by starting an economic race the other could not follow.
This time, the authoritarian system used the economy to weaken and potentially neutralise its opposition.
Taiwan's greatest threat, in the next 20 years, could be the end of the Western industries' dependence on its microchip manufacturing capabilities, due to important investments made by Europe and the USA.
The best way for China might be to continue applying a limited amount of pressure, wearing down the Taiwanese military for several years, but to do nothing before the US loses interest.
One thing is sure, China will not let it go. They consider Taiwan their backyard, and its integration is part of their national rejuvenation program planned to end in 2049.
A MARITIME BLOCKADE OF TAIWAN BY THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA A Strategy to Defeat Fear and Coercion Marek Jestrab Commander, US Navy: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/strategy-paper_naval-blockade-of-Taiwan.pdf
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59900139
